Behind the headlines, what do the numbers really tell us about the India-UK trade relationship? Furthermore, what do they mean for businesses on the ground?
Trade agreements generate a lot of numbers. Finance ministries issue projections. Economists dispute modelling assumptions. Meanwhile, headlines swing between cautious optimism and scepticism. For business leaders making concrete decisions, cutting through the noise matters.
Here is what the India-UK CETA in numbers really tells us. In addition, we set out what those figures mean for Indian businesses considering, or already operating in, the United Kingdom.
£47.4 billion
This was the total bilateral trade between India and the UK in the year to Q3 2025. Importantly, it is already a substantial relationship, and it keeps growing. In fact, the 11.7% year-on-year increase reflects strong underlying commercial complementarity. This growth happened even before preferential terms formally applied. As a result, India is now one of the UK’s fastest-growing major trade partners. Meanwhile, the UK is among India’s top five export destinations.
USD 100 billion
This is the target for bilateral trade by 2030. It represents a near-doubling of the current position. However, it is ambitious and not guaranteed. Achievement depends heavily on how effectively Indian businesses establish and scale UK operations. The firms that enter the UK market now, with the right structure and adviser support, are best placed to benefit.
99%
This is the proportion of Indian tariff lines on which the UK will eliminate duties. As a result, it is close to comprehensive and marks a major shift for Indian goods exporters. The sectors that will see the most impact include:
- Textiles and clothing (previously subject to tariffs of up to 12%)
- Footwear and leather goods (up to 16%)
- Chemicals and pharmaceuticals (up to 8%)
- Engineering goods and auto components (up to 18%)
- Marine products (up to 21.5%)
- Processed foods (up to 70%)
- Gems and jewellery (eliminated in full)
First of its kind
The India–UK CETA in numbers is not just about tariffs. Notably, the agreement includes a standalone financial services chapter – a first for any Indian trade agreement. Consequently, this provision has attracted strong interest from Indian banks, insurers, and fintechs. For the first time, it gives Indian financial services firms real legal certainty in the UK. However, FCA authorisation requirements remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the commercial case for pursuing UK authorisation has strengthened considerably.
64 companies / £1.3 billion
These are the numbers behind the wave of Indian investment following the deal. Specifically, 64 Indian businesses announced £1.3 billion of UK investment at the October 2025 Modi-Starmer summit in Mumbai. In addition, these commitments are creating nearly 7,000 UK jobs. The sectors involved range from IT and digital services to advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. Crucially, these companies represent the leading edge of a much larger inbound wave.
15 July 2026
This is the confirmed entry-into-force date for the India-UK CETA and the Double Contribution Convention (DCC). The two Prime Ministers announced it at the G7 Summit in June 2026. Consequently, tariff reductions, services commitments, and mobility provisions take effect immediately for qualifying transactions. Furthermore, the DCC exempts Indian workers and employers from UK National Insurance for up to five years (increased from three at signing). Therefore, businesses that prepare now will be much better placed than those that wait.
25%
This is the current UK headline Corporation Tax rate. It applies to profits over £250,000. A small profits rate of 19% applies to profits up to £50,000. Marginal relief tapers the effective rate for profits in between. For businesses familiar with India’s corporate tax regime, the UK rate is comparable. However, the reliefs available differ significantly.
Reliefs can reduce the effective rate well below the headline figure. In particular, these include:
- R&D tax credits under the merged RDEC scheme
- Capital allowances, including full expensing
- The Patent Box (10% effective rate on qualifying IP profits)
- The UK’s extensive double taxation treaty network
Therefore, understanding and claiming these reliefs is a core part of the accountancy brief for any UK-established Indian business.
What the India-UK CETA numbers mean in practice
Statistics describe a landscape. However, they do not tell any individual business what to do. Nevertheless, they help frame the scale of the opportunity. In addition, they show the competitive context in which that opportunity plays out.
Indian businesses that move now will have a meaningful head start. Specifically, they should establish UK structures, secure adviser relationships, and put their compliance frameworks in place before entry into force. In contrast, those that wait to see how the deal plays out will fall behind. The numbers show the deal is real. Furthermore, commercial flows are already moving. As a result, the window for first-mover advantage is open – but it is narrowing rapidly.
How we can help
The India-UK CETA in numbers is only the starting point. Every business is different. Therefore, the right structure and strategy depend on your sector, ambitions, and starting position. Our team helps Indian businesses turn the CETA opportunity into a UK operation that works.
